환율변동과 아웃바운드 및 인바운드 관광객 수와의 관계에 대한 실증적 연구

초록

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and outbound & inbound tourists in Korea using an vector autoregressive model (VAR) between January 1975 and December 2010. We used monthly data of the exchange rate (EXC) and outbound tourists (FTOU) & inbound tourists (KTOU). In this sutdy, we tested the Unit roots, the Granger Causality, the Impulse response function and the Variance decomposition By above process, this sutyd can be concluded as follows:Firstly, in the unit root test, we found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. Secondly, in the Granger casuality test, the study results show that there is unilateral casuality relation between EXC and KTOU or FTOU in all models. Thirdly, the cointegration relation between two variables was not found in all models. Finally, in the impulse response test, it was proved that it has become convergence after five or six months.

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