SSPs 기후변화 시나리오와 비정상성을 고려한 강원특별자치도에서의 강우량 지역빈도분석

초록

Due to recent intense rainfall driven by climate change, measures to protect lives and property from floods and enhance safety have become increasingly urgent. The design rainfall used in the construction of hydraulic structures, such as dams and levees, is crucial for determining the size of these structures. This study utilized climate change scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 to calculate the design rainfall that reflects future climate change factors and compared the results of each technique. This study analyzed the effect of altitude on cluster formation using the altitude of rainfall stations, which is a key procedure in regional frequency analysis. This study compared at-site frequency analysis and regional frequency analysis depending on the frequency analysis technique and evaluated differences between the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Additionally, three non-stationarity models were compared to account for non-stationarity. Results indicated that conducting regional frequency analysis by basin or region is more appropriate than performing it at the national level. It was suggested that combining at-site frequency analysis with regional frequency analysis could provide a comprehensive comparison of the results.

키워드