도시화, 산업화, 개방화 그리고 시장화간의 인과 관계 및 파급효과

초록

This paper examines the causality and effects between urbanization(e.g., dur), industrializa- tion((e.g., din), internationalization(e.g., dop) and marketization(e.g., dfi) in the case of china for the period of 1952-2007. This papers applied econometric techniques such as unit root tests, cointegration models and impulse response functions. The results of this paper are as follows; First, this study looked simultaneously into unit root test to see whether time series were stable before the concrete time series analysis. In the unit root test, this paper found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. Second, in the Granger causality test, this paper shows that there is bilateral causality relation between dur and din runs in both directions for the period of 1952-2007 and 1952-1997, while no causality for the pre-reform period, and dur influence dop for the same time. Finally this paper carried on impulse-response and variance decomposition test to verify the relation of each variable. In impulse-response test, it was proved din represents (＋) correlation with dop for the period 1952-2007 and dfi represents (－) correlation with din since China began economic reform and opening-up. Through the variance decomposition test, it was proved that dur and din variable for the whole period(1952-2007) and the post-reform period are the most affected variable of the each data.

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