Mechanisms of intensifying water conflict in the Mekong River Basin under climate change

초록

The Mekong River Basin is experiencing increasing structural instability as growing hydrological variability due to climate change interacts with the cumulative impacts of upstream dam development. In particular, the 2019-2020 'man-made drought' controversy illustrates how conflict can escalate when scientific uncertainty is politicized. This study aims to explain how overlapping climate-hydrological stress and power asymmetries contribute to the entrenchment of a low-to-medium intensity chronic conflict regime in the basin. Methodologically, it combines a single-case study with process tracing and applies the context-mechanism-outcome framework derived from realistic evaluation. The analysis finds that mediating mechanisms (M) - notably the operation of hydro-hegemony and the unequal distribution of costs and benefits - are activated under structural conditions (C) characterized by hydrological volatility and power and institutional asymmetries. As a result (O), cooperative institutions persist in form while a 'managed but unresolved' conflict state becomes entrenched through the ongoing reproduction of distrust. The findings indicate that a peaceful resolution of Mekong River conflicts requires structural measures that go beyond technical cooperation, including improved data transparency, benefit-sharing and damage-recovery agreements, and the creation of a multilateral mediation platform to mitigate asymmetries.

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