실질소득과 부동산 자산분위 간의 관계: 2017–2025년 가계금융복지조사 통합자료 분석

초록

In recent years, real estate-centered wealth accumulation and the deepening of wealth inequality have emerged as important socioeconomic issues in South Korea. However, previous studies have primarily focused on income inequality or asset distribution, and relatively few studies have empirically examined the long-term relationship between real income, which reflects inflation, and households’ positions within the real estate asset distribution. Accordingly, this study analyzes the relationship between real income and real estate asset deciles using pooled data from the Household Finance and Welfare Survey (HFWS) for the period from 2017 to 2025. An ordered logistic regression model was employed, with real estate asset deciles as the dependent variable. The key independent variable was the natural logarithm of real income adjusted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (ln_income_real). Average marginal effects (AMEs), age-group interaction analyses, and robustness tests were conducted to assess the consistency of the results. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between real income and higher real estate asset deciles. In the final model controlling for various socioeconomic characteristics, the odds ratio for real income was estimated at 1.650 (p < 0.001). The AMEs showed that as real income increased, the probability of belonging to lower real estate asset deciles decreased, while the probability of belonging to higher real estate asset deciles increased. In particular, a one-unit increase in the logarithm of real income was associated with an average 7.56 percentage-point increase in the predicted probability of belonging to the highest, 10th real estate asset decile. In addition, the association between real income and real estate asset deciles varied across age groups, and the robustness tests using alternative income variables consistently showed the same direction and statistical significance of the results. This study is significant in that it empirically identifies the relationship between inflation-adjusted real income and real estate asset deciles using long-term pooled data. The findings show that households with greater real purchasing power are more likely to belong to higher real estate asset deciles, providing empirical evidence that contributes to a broader understanding of the process of real estate-centered wealth accumulation and wealth inequality in South Korea.

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