Assessment of Drought Vulnerability due to Climate Change in Gangwon State; 기후변화에 따른 강원지역 가뭄 취약성 평가

초록

We assessed drought vulnerability in the Gangwon area using predicted monthly average temperatures and monthly precipitation under the RCP2-4.5 and RCP5-8.5 scenarios for 2025~2050. Over the past 10 years, the average annual temperature in the Gangwon area was 11.7°C and the annual precipitation was 1,331 mm. According to climate predictions for 2025~2050 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the average monthly temperature in the Gangwon area is expected to increase by 0.2~0.6°C, with increases observed in all areas. Annual precipitation is expected to increase by 3~110 mm, but is predicted to decrease in some regions such as Cheorwon and Pyeongchang. For 2025~2050, the possibility of flash drought is expected to be high due to the increase in the average monthly temperature in the Gangwon area, and it was predicted that a hydrological drought would occur during the period corresponding to 1.9~33.0% due to the decrease in monthly precipitation. The drought risk assessment indicates a relatively high risk of drought in Cheorwon, Hwacheon, Donghae, and Samcheok. The drought risk is not significantly different between the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. © 2024 The Korean Society of Engineering Geology.

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