식량안보의 실패 －인도 쌀 수출 제한이 필리핀 쌀 가격에 미친 영향을 중심으로－

초록

This study examines the impact of India’s rice export restrictions, implemented on July 20, 2023, on rice prices in the Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer. Although the Philippines directly sources only 3.6% of its total rice imports from India, the latter’s position as the world’s largest rice exporter raises the possibility of indirect effects through international markets. Using the Synthetic Control Method for empirical analysis, the results indicate that six months after the policy’s implementation, rice prices in the Philippines increased by 19.72%. This finding illustrates how trade restrictions by major exporters can indirectly influence prices and highlights the need for policy measures to address volatility in international grain markets.

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