Application of the Canadian Fire Weather Index for Forest Fire Danger Assessment in South Korea

초록

Climate change has led to the global intensification of wildfire activity, and South Korea has also experienced a marked increase in fire danger. To understand these developments, it is essential to examine both temporal trends and spatial patterns in fire-conducive climate conditions. In this study, we investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of wildfire danger across South Korea between 2004 and 2023 using the Fire Weather Index (FWI). The analysis of long-term climate trends revealed region-specific patterns of increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and declining wind speeds, which collectively contribute to an increased risk of wildfires. The FWI exhibited strong seasonal variations, with significant increases observed in spring, particularly in May, over the most recent decade. Statistical analyses confirmed a strong correlation between high FWI percentiles and wildfire occurrence, particularly noting an increased frequency of large-scale fires (>100 ha) in the highest FWI bins. The spatial analysis further highlighted that certain provinces, including Gangwon State, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Chuncheongbuk-do, and Gyeonggi-do, experienced disproportionately high increases in FWI values. These findings suggest that the FWI can serve as a robust framework for wildfire danger assessment in South Korea, particularly when supported by region-specific calibration and long-term validation under varying climatic conditions.

키워드