Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Pattern of China’s Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors

초록

Grain production in China is a significant issue concerning the national economy and people's livelihood. Along with economic development, the pattern of grain production in China has changed dramatically, causing a potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand and grain security. Based on the grain output of 31 provinces from 2007 to 2019, this study analyzed the changes in grain production distribution in China, tested the spatial autocorrelation of grain output by Moran's I and examined the factors affecting the change of grain production pattern in various provinces of China by Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). There was a clear positive spatial autocorrelation between the grain outputs of different regions. The arable land per capita, agricultural labor, agricultural machine and GDP per capita exerted a significant positive impact on the growth of grain production in China. The spatial spillover effect of agricultural labor, agricultural machine and GDP per capita was significant. These factors are responsible for the change in the grain production layout. This study suggests that agricultural science and technology should be improved, and the arable land in different provinces should be protected to assure grain security.

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