SSP 시나리오에 따른 CMIP6 GCM 기반 미래 극한 가뭄 전망

초록

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficientrainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challengein accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severedroughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and socialdamage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implementcorresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climatechange scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate changemitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics,economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices werecalculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario,and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), andStandardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in SouthKorea.

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