Projection of Future Water Supply Sustainability in Agricultural Reservoirs under RCP Climate Change Scenarios

초록

Climate change influences multiple environmental aspects, certain of which are specifically related to agricultural water resourcessuch as water supply, water management, droughts and floods. Understanding the impact of climate change on reservoirs in relationto the passage of time is an important component of water resource management for stable water supply maintenance. Changes onrainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can increases the occurrence of reservoir water shortage and affect the futureavailability of agricultural water resources. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resourcesmanagement to evaluate adaptation capability of water supply under the future climate conditions. The purpose of this study is topredict the sustainability of agricultural water demand and supply under future climate change by applying an irrigation vulnerabilityassessment model to investigate evidence of climate change occurrences at a local scale with respect to potential water supplycapacity and irrigation water requirement. Thus, it is a recommended practice in the development of water supply managementstrategies on reservoir operation under climate change.

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