지역 간 청장년층(30–49세)의 부담가능성과 주거 사다리 이동 구조 분석 – 전국 시군구 Origin–Destination(OD) 패널 분석 –

초록

This study empirically examines the effects of housing affordability and housing ladder mobility on interregional migration among adults aged 30–49 by integrating migration analysis with housing market structure. A nationwide municipal-level Origin–Destination (OD) panel dataset covering 2008–2021 was constructed, and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) model was applied by considering the non-negative nature of migration flow data and the possibility of heteroskedasticity. Housing prices are interpreted not only as cost factors but also as price signals reflecting regional economic opportunities and residential environments. Affordability is measured as a proxy for housing market accessibility relative to regional economic capacity, while housing market segmentation and Housing Ladder Gap are used to capture relative price positions between origins and destinations. The results show that destination housing prices have a significant positive effect on migration inflows, whereas affordability does not support the expected positive effect. Upward housing ladder mobility has a significant positive effect across all upward mobility categories, while downward mobility has a negative effect on migration inflows. These findings suggest that migration among adults aged 30–49 is better understood as a selective mobility process oriented toward maintaining or improving housing market position, shaped by price signals and housing market structure, rather than simple housing-cost avoidance.

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