Sensitivity analysis for friction coefficient on the estimations of probability of pipe breakage

초록

In the present study, Level II AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) reliability model was used for the probability of pipe breakage. Sensitivity analysis of Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient in unsteady analysis has been performed. It was found that the probability of pipe breakage could be considerably increased when Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient is relatively smaller. If thickness is 0.4 cm, diameter is 40 cm, and allowable stress is 1200 kg/cm(2), the probability of pipe breakage was 37.04, 30.33, 24.72, and 23.30%, respectively when Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient is 0.01, 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 regarding unsteady effect. Level III MCS (Monte-Carlo Simulation) model was used for the confirmations of AFDA model in the present study. The results of present sensitivity analysis showed that Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient in unsteady analysis could significantly affect the probability of pipe breakage and should be carefully selected for the safe design and economical maintenance for water distribution system.

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