Socioeconomic drought assessment based on potential drought damage index that considers resilience

초록

This paper is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitle [Development of Potential Drought Damage Index in Consideration of a Resilience Concept] presented at [GST, Jeju and 2016.12.22.] recent years, the global climate change has caused numerous extreme weather events, one of them being the increase of damage caused by droughts across the world. Conventional drought indices can only provide simple representations of the seriousness of drought occurrences as they simply analyze the natural phenomena involved. However, as urban development sped up the urbanization processes across the world, droughts can no longer be characterized as a mere natural phenomenon because it results from a network of causes involving various human and social factors. The purpose of this study is to develop a potential drought damage index that takes the concept of resilience in consideration. To incorporate resilience into the proposed index, this study considered the following indices in the proposed index; drought index, drought response ability index, and drought vulnerability index. The Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) was used as the drought indicator, and the optimal duration of a drought was also considered to determine social and economic droughts. Human and social factors, supply of household/agricultural/industrial water, and underground water reserve were selected as the response ability indicators. Human and social factors, shortage of agricultural water, and meteorological factors were considered as vulnerability indicators. The factors were weighted through an AHP analysis. The SDI, the response ability index, and the vulnerability index were standardized to derive the Potential Drought Damage Index (PDDI). The PDDI values were then classified into several grades based on severity. Last, to verify the necessity of a PDDI that considers resilience, this study compared the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which only considers rainfall, and the SDI, which also considers streamflow. © 2017 International Information Institute.

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