Analysis on the change of total factor productivity of wheat in China and its influencing factors

초록

As one of the three major food crops in China, wheat production plays a vital role in people's lives and industrial development. This study used a DEA-Malmquist model to calculate and analyze the wheat total factor productivity (TFP) of 12 major wheat-producing provinces from 2005 to 2019. The data necessary for this calculation were obtained from the "National Farm Product Cost-benefit Survey". Further to this calculation, an LSDVC model was used to explore the factors influencing the TFP. For this, the data were obtained from the "China Statistical Yearbook", "Rural Statistical Yearbook of China", and "Transport Yearbook". The results showed that from 2005 to 2019, China's wheat total factor productivity showed a decline and increased at an average annual rate of -1.5%. As far as the factors influencing the wheat production efficiency are concerned, the total mechanical power has a significant positive impact on the TFP of wheat. In contrast, government expenditures for agriculture, forestry and water resources, and industrialization have significantly adverse effects on the wheat TFP. Moreover , the rural road density and urbanization showed no significant impact on the TFP of wheat. Therefore, to promote the sustainable improvement of wheat productivity, the future development of the wheat industry should focus on the transformation of the agricultural development mode, human resources investment, and encourage the industry sector to nurture agriculture.

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