국외산림탄소축적증진사업 대상국 선정을 위한 유형화 연구

초록

South Korea has set national greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2030, including a goal of 37.5 million tCO2eq reduction through international efforts. Within the forestry sector, this target incorporates a reduction of 5 million tCO2eq through the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiative in developing countries. To achieve South Korea’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), it is essential to expand REDD+ projects to additional countries. Successful implementation requires strategic selection of target countries considering social, political, and economic variables. This study aims to identify and classify countries suitable for participation in South Korea’s REDD+ by analyzing forest conditions, socio-economic factors, political characteristics, and existing cooperation agreements with South Korea. Principal Component Analysis was used to extract common factors, followed by hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analyses to classify countries. The analysis categorized potential REDD+ partner countries into four clusters: foundation building, potential growth, upper-middle income, and priority access. The first cluster comprised 41 countries, including Belize and Honduras; the second cluster consisted of 16 countries, such as Tanzania, Bhutan, and Fiji; the third cluster included 29 countries, like Costa Rica, Ecuador, Argentina, and Chile; and the fourth cluster comprised 25 countries, including Laos, Cambodia, and Ghana. This study provides cooperation strategies and investment insights for the public and private sectors in selecting REDD+ partner countries. It also serves as a key resource to help South Korea achieve international emission reduction targets and meet NDC commitments.

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