Temporospatial clustering analysis of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in South Korea, 2010-2011

초록

To investigate the transmission pattern of geographical area and temporal trends of the 2010~2011 footand-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Korea, and to explore temporal intervals at which spatial clustering of FMD cases space-time analysis based on georeferenced database of 3,575 burial sites, from 30 November 2010 to 23 February 2011, was performed. The cases represent approximately 98.1% of all infected farms (n = 3,644) during the same period. Descriptive maps of spatial patterns of the outbreaks were generated by ArcGIS. Spatial Scan Statistics, using SaTScan software, was applied to investigate geographical clusters of FMD cases across the country. Overall, spatial heterogeneity was identified, and the transmission pattern was different by province. Cattle have more clusters in number but smaller in size, as compared to the swine population. In addition, spatiotemporal analysis and the comparison of clustering patterns between the first 7 days and days 8 to 14 of the outbreak revealed that the strongest spatial clustering was identified at the 7-day interval, although clustering over longer intervals (8~14 days) was also observed. We further discussed the importance of time period elapsed between FMD-suspected notice and the date of confirmation, and emphasized the necessity of region-specific and species-specific control measures.

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