Predicting Yield in Tomato Infected with Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus (TYLCV) Using Regression Models Based on Physiological Traits

초록

Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) is one of the most destructive viral diseases causing severe yield losses in tomato production worldwide. This study investigated the effects of TYLCV infection on plant growth, photosynthetic physiological responses, and yield formation in greenhouse-grown tomatoes and evaluated the applicability of physiological trait-based yield prediction models. Two large-fruited tomato cultivars widely cultivated in Korean protected horticulture systems, 'Daphnis' and 'Pink Star', were inoculated with TYLCV under greenhouse conditions, and their growth, physiological responses, and yield characteristics were compared under high- and low-temperature growing seasons. TYLCV infection significantly reduced leaf length, leaf width, and leaf area index (LAI), and decreased both flowering truss number and fruit-setting truss number, resulting in reduced total yield. Physiological analyses showed that infected plants exhibited decreases in the OJIP fluorescence rise curve and Fv/Fm values, indicating a reduced photochemical efficiency in photosystem II. In addition, A-Ci response curve analysis revealed a reduction in net photosynthetic rate, suggesting limited carbon assimilation capacity. Total yield showed significant positive correlations with maximum net photosynthetic rate (Amax), Fv/Fm, and Ci300. GGE and GT biplot analyses further indicated that yield was closely associated with photosynthetic performance and canopy development traits. A multiple regression model based on physiological traits and virus infection status explained a significant proportion of the variation in tomato yield (R2 = 0.367), indicating that TYLCV infection acts as a key limiting factor for yield reduction. These findings demonstrate that TYLCV infection restricts tomato productivity through reduced photosynthetic efficiency and altered canopy structure. Moreover, physiological trait-based yield prediction approaches may provide a useful framework for evaluating productivity under viral infection conditions and for developing data-driven crop management strategies in greenhouse tomato production systems.

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