Detection and Identification of Outliers in Prices: The Case of the Philippine Pork Meat Market

초록

It is important to identify significant shocks affecting pork prices to understand the Philippine pork market. Some of these shocks affect the market prices temporarily, and others affect the market prices permanently. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with an outlier model was utilized to investigate such shocks in the pork market. This study used farmgate prices for hogs from January 2014 to December 2020 and retail prices for lean meat and meat with bone from January 1990 to January 2021. The study found permanent and temporary shocks in the specific time for farmgate prices, lean meat prices, and meat with bone prices. Such outliers were consistent to the outbreaks of foot-and-mouth-disease (FMD), African swine fever (ASF), and the COVID-19 pandemic. The stakeholders and industry players in the Philippine pork market should work closely to mitigate the effects of future outliers on monthly prices in the future.

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