중국 경제개혁 · 개방이후 관광산업과 서비스산업 간의 인과관계

초록

This paper examines the causality betwen real foreign exchange earnings from international tourism, the number of foreign visitors of China and real production amount in service industry in the case of China for the period of 1978-2008. In order to grasp the causality of three variables, we take their natural logarithm and define them as dlinco, dltour and dlserv: these represent the distributed variable based the lagged values of real foreign exchange earnings from international tourism, the number of foreign visitors and real production amount in service industry, respectively. This study applied econometric techniques such as unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointergration test, VECM. The results of this study are as follows: Firstly, in the unit root, test, we found that each time series was unstable one that has until root. Secondly, there is cointegration relation between total models of linc and 1serv, 1tour and 1serv for the period of 1978-2008. Thirdly, in the Granger casuality test, the study results show that there is bialateral casuality relation between dlinco and dlserv runs in both directions for the Zhejiang model, while no casuality for total model of China. But in the Beijing model and Guangdong model, dlserv influence dlinco and dltour for the same time.

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