IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON FROZEN CHICKEN AND DOMESTIC POULTRY PRODUCTION: THE CASE OF CAMEROON

초록

The Cameroonian government implemented import restrictions in 2004 to protect the local poultry industry from low-priced frozen chicken imports that had been driving substantial financial losses and extensive job losses among small-scale producers. Prior to the ban, imported frozen chicken accounted for over 60 percent of urban poultry markets, undercutting domestic prices, eroding producer margins, and exacerbating concerns about food quality, food sovereignty, and rural livelihoods. This study investigated the policy's impact on annual domestic chicken production by applying the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) which is a counterfactual-based approach that constructs a weighted average of several other units to recreate the trajectory that chicken production would have followed in the absence of the intervention. The analysis draws on Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) data from 1961 to 2022, focusing on a 1984–2003 pre-intervention window to secure a robust counterfactual, and assembling a donor pool of ten agricultural commodities, excluding crops with incomplete data or those affected by trade measures during the time frame of the analysis. Predictor variables include production levels, ensuring the synthetic control closely mirrors Cameroon's pre-2004 production trend. Between 2004 and 2008, observed output exceeded the synthetic counterfactual by an average of 23,880 tons per year, indicating a sizable policy-induced expansion. In major cities such as Yaounde and Douala, broiler prices respond to seasonal supply fluctuations: during shortages, prices for a 2kg bird rise to 3,500 Franc of the African Financial Community (FCFA), while in periods of surplus they fall to around 3,000 FCFA. National production is nearly fully absorbed by domestic demand, with no structural oversupply. Three Robustness checks: the placebo effects test, Root Mean Square Predictor Error (RMSPE) comparisons and leave one out tests confirm that the findings are robust. However, after 2008 volatility emerged due to the avian influenza shock and binding feed constraints (maize/soy), highlighting structural bottlenecks beyond border policy. These results support the infant-industry rationale for temporary protection but show that durable gains require complementary investments: input stabilization, veterinary and processing infrastructure, and market/quality systems aligned with World Trade Organization (WTO) consistent policy transitions. The SCM's applicability to agricultural trade policy in Africa was demonstrated and a replicable template for future evaluations provided. By doing that, this study offers concrete guidance for policymakers in designing sustainable agricultural trade policies. © 2026, African Scholarly Science Communications Trust (ASSCAT). All rights reserved.

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