인바운드 국제관광지출의 탄력성과 구조적 변화

초록

This study examined the elasticities and structural changes of inbound international tourism expenditure. First, the AIDS model shows high explanatory power. Second, the own and cross price elasticities were inelastic and negative under the Marshallian price elasticity. Third, shopping was elastic and sensitive in the entire period under the Marshallian expenditure (income) elasticity. Fourth, the own and cross price elasticities were inelastic in all periods under the Hicksian price elasticity. Fifth, shopping had the most increased regime switching volatility probability in asymmetric SWARCH model, indicating there was the increase in the risk of regime switching that showed significant structural changes. Leverage and asymmetric effects were present in shopping. Sixth, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes for tourist spending in Chow tests during the crisis. Furthermore, the 1-Step and N-Step tests showed the most instability in each level of tourism spending, but total tourism spending was stable in the CUSUM tests. All figures except shopping were significantly unstable in the CUSUMSQ tests during the global crisis.Thus, we found that there were the insensitive elasticities and structural changes resulting from instability in coefficients of the inbound international tourism expenditure in this paper.

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