한·미 FTA에 따른 강원농업의 파급영향분석

초록

This study tries to derive Kanwon Province’s countermeasures for the Korea-U.S. FTA through examining its direct and indirect economic impacts on an agricultural sector in Kanwon Province. The direct impacts are estimated to be deduction in production of the Kangwon Procince's 18 main agricultural products derived based on supply elasticities. The indirect impacts are measured using the Kanagwon Province’s regional input-output model derived by the RAS method in this study, based on 2003 national I-O model published in 2007. The production reduction in the Kangwon Province’s agriculture resulting from substitution of imports for domestic production owing to the Korea-U.S. FTA is estimated to be 65 billion won, 104 billion won and 136 billion won by terms. And 2,235, 3,596 and 4,771 people are estimated to lose their jobs by terms. Therefore, the best countermeasures of the Kangwon Province is found to be strengthening economic competitiveness of its regional agriculture rather than simple compensation of the economic damages.

키워드