Uncertainty of Water Supply in Agricultural Reservoirs Considering the Climate Change

초록

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change inrainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. Thequantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is amajor concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on aprobabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources underfuture climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms andprobability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the futureagricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it isrecommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios thatreflect different future development conditions.

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