주택가격이 담보대출 연체율에 미치는 영향

초록

This study empirically analyzed the effects of housing price on household mortgage arrears rate through VEC model. Income, consumer’s price index, size of household mortgage arrears rate, housing price, and interest rate were used as the explanatory variable about household mortgage arrears rate. The analysis model estimated long-run equilibrium equation and short term transition equation, using VEC model. And through variance decomposition analysis and impulse response analysis, dynamic analysis was conducted. The results of the analysis are like the following. First, the effect of housing price on household mortgage arrears rate is bigger than other macro and financial variables. Second, the effect of interest rate fluctuation on household mortgage arrears rate is smaller than that of housing price. These facts indicate that the effect of housing price fluctuation is greater on household finances than that of other variables. Therefore, when finance policy or macro policies are managed, utilizing housing price fluctuation as major index could lead to not only the stability of housing market, but also the stability of national economy.

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