Projected spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture drought under CMIP6 climate change scenarios

초록

According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the frequency of natural disasters worldwide between 2000 and 2019 increased 1.7 times from the past 20 years (1980-1999) due to climate change. Climate change causes irregular changes in the size, frequency, and pattern of extreme precipitation, and directly affects changes in water resources such as hydrological circulation and outflow, and changes in agricultural environment, crop growth, and production. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6), an international joint project on international standard climate experiments, developed SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), a new greenhouse gas reduction path considering future social and economic structural changes, depending on the level of greenhouse gas reduction and climate change adaptation measures for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 6th assessment report (AR6). In the case of rice paddies in South Korea, water supply systems are established from agricultural repair facilities such as agricultural reservoirs and pumping stations, while most upland crops rely on natural rainfall to supply water, making them relatively vulnerable to drought compared to rice paddies. In this study, attempts to simulate future soil moisture using SSP climate change scenarios and soil moisture models provided by CMIP6, and to identify future soil moisture variability and drought patterns by applying Runs theory based on calculated soil moisture. © 2023 ASABE Annual International Meeting. All Rights Reserved.

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