Population viability analysis to estimate the needed number of capture-and-remove wild boars for control of African swine fever in the Republic of Korea

초록

Since the first detection of the African swine fever (ASF) virus in the Republic of Korea in 2019, the Korean government has applied interventions, including fencing, increasing the biosecurity level at domestic pig farms, and the capture-and-removal of wild boars. In particular, wild boars are an important risk factor for ASF control because they can spread disease among susceptible animals, such as wild boars or domestic pigs. A capture-and-removal method aims to reduce the likelihood of ASF transmission from wild boars to domestic boars or among wild boars by decreasing the number of susceptible wild boars. This study estimated the required number of wild boars captured and removed for ASF control using population viability analysis. Population factors, such as a life span, sex ratio, or an inbreeding depression with different capture-and-removal proportions of wild boars, were included in the analysis. Ten scenarios with different capture-and-removal proportions of wild boars and different periods of culling were considered. According to the results, a method in which 75% of wild boars are captured-and-removed for at least three years showed long-term effectiveness for more than ten years. The current ASF control method, in which 33% of wild boars are captured-and-removed, decreased the number of wild boars for three years, after which the wild boar population increased to more than its initial number. Given the limited human and material resources for controlling ASF in the Republic of Korea, it is recommended that resources be prioritized to increase the capture-and-removal proportion of wild boars to take full advantage of the ASF-control effectiveness.

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