Climatic factors controlling interannual variability of the onset of vegetation phenology in the northern Sub-Saharan Africa from 1988 to 2013

초록

Satellite-based evaluations of change in vegetation phenology have been explored extensively but land cover-specific climate factors driving these anomalous changes are not fully understood in northern Sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we identified the climatic factors controlling the start of the season (SOS) extracted from GIMMS NDVI from 1988 to 2013 with onset of rainy season (ORS), annual mean temperature (Temp) and precipitation (PP) through the stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that the SOS shifted towards a late onset in a northward direction with distinct earlier and later trends in grassland and cropland, respectively. The stepwise regression has successfully built a model between SOS and its drivers in 46.0% of the total pixels, where its primary factor differed regionally across land covers. The ORS explained the local anomalous SOS change primarily at 44.7% of the pixels where the model was built. Although the ORS was the primary dominant factor in savannah and cropland, the Temp and PP were leading in grassland and shrubland, respectively, and all factors contributed evenly in evergreen forest. The difference of land cover-specific primary factor implicates complex process in dependency of local vegetation phenology on physiological traits and climate regime across land cover in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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