Future Residential Water Use and Management Under Climate Change Using Bayesian Neural Networks

초록

This study projects future Residential Water Use (RWU) under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model that quantifies the relationship between observed temperatures and RWU. Eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario were used to assess the uncertainties across these models. The findings indicate that RWU in Republic of Korea (ROK) is closely linked to temperature changes, with significant increases projected in the distant future (F3), especially during summer. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, RWU is expected to increase by up to 10.3% by the late 21st century (2081-2100) compared to the historical baseline. The model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11,400 m3/month, demonstrating reliable predictive performance. Unlike conventional deep learning models, the BNN provides probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty bounds, enhancing its suitability for climate-sensitive resource planning. This study also projects inflows to the Paldang Dam, revealing an overall increase in future water availability. However, winter water security may decline due to decreased inflow and minimal changes in RWU. This study suggests enhancing summer precipitation storage while considering downstream flood risks. Demand management strategies are recommended for addressing future winter water security challenges. This research highlights the importance of projecting RWU under climate change scenarios and emphasizes the need for strategic water resource management in ROK.

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