Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Climatic Zones over the Korean Peninsula

초록

In assessing the impact of climate change, the use of a multimodel ensemble (MME) is required to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for the simulation of climate under the influence of different factors including topography. This study of climate change scenarios from 13 global climate models (GCMs) assesses the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks studies using climate change scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. As such, one of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates the high applicability of the MME. Furthermore, this study classifies climatic zones by applying the Koppen-Geiger climatic zones classification to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate. Moreover, the coefficient of variation (CV) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula, and, accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted.