Predicting Diameter Distribution Changes of Major Coniferous Species through Stand Table Projection

초록

This study predicted changes in diameter distribution for Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora), Korean white pine (P. koraiensis), and Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi) plantations in South Korea using the stand table projection method. Growth index ratio over 3-year (GIR3) was calculated by species, age class, and stocking class to estimate upgrowth across diameter classes. GIR3 tended to be higher in Korean red pine and decreased with increasing age and stocking classes. Diameter distributions after 3, 6, and 9 years were predicted using the calculated GIR3. The predicted distributions generally shifted to the right while maintaining the shape of the present distribution. Prediction accuracy was assessed using KS quotient and Error Index, showing decreasing accuracy with longer prediction periods. The GIR table and stand table projection method can provide a simple and practical approach for predicting changes in growing stock, timber yield, and carbon sequestration in forest management planning.

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