우리나라 노년층의 해외여행 수요예측:인공신경망 모형을 이용하여

초록

Many experts forecast that Korea will be in an aged society soon. Due to this significant shift, the objectives of the study are as follows; firstly to explain the aging progress of Korea and academic interests for the last 18years, secondly to describe the structure and theory of Artificial Neural Network model, thirdly to forecast the tourism demand in Korean seniors for China and Japan, finally to give academic explanations to Korean tourism sector. The results identified three meaningful results. First, the study describe that the market for Korean elderly people would be important in the tourism study. The study also predicted the outbound travel demands and emphasize the trend for Korean senior citizen. The results provide base to produce useful strategies for the tourism industry such as tourism marketing and policy. Finally, the study identify that ANN model would improve the accuracy for Korea’s tourism demand study.핵심용어(Key words):노년층(Senior citizen),해외여행수요(Outbound tourism demands),인공신경망 모형(Artificial neural network),시계열(Time series)

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