Impact of Climate Change on Species Distribution of Picea jezoensis Carrire in Baekdudaegan Using Ensemble Modeling

초록

Climate change is altering habitat environments, threatening the survival of Picea jezoensis (Siebold et Zucc.) Carriere in South Korea. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been considered an effective tool to investigate the impact of climate change on species' potential distributions. We collected occurrence data and bioclimatic data to predict the current and future distributions by ensemble distribution modeling on the BIOMOD2 platform. The predicted distribution habitats of P. jezoensis for both current and future climates were shown by ensemble prediction with true skill statistic (TSS) values of over 0.8. Using the random forest (RF) and general linear model (GLM), the natural habitat of P. jezoensis was predicted to become extinct in the 2070s under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. However, the general additive model (GAM) predicted a limited habitat of P. jezoensis across the South Korean peninsula in the 2070s. Hence, the natural distribution of P. jezoensis is not expected to find alternative habitats to offset their loss of current habitat, placing them at more significant risk of extinction in the future. These findings will aid the effective management and conservation of P. jezoensis by providing an understanding of the future impact of climate change on targeted endangered species.

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