Study on the influencing factors of wheat import trade in China

초록

Wheat is one of the three major food crops in China, and wheat production plays an important role in people's lives and industrial development. China is the world's largest consumer of products and also a leading wheat trading country. However, the production of low-quality wheat in some regions, large trade deficit, and excessive concentration of import sources have troubled the development of China's wheat industry. In this study, the import trade pattern of wheat was studied, and the gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator were used to conduct an empirical analysis on the factors influencing wheat import trade. From 2010 to 2020, China gradually formed an import pattern mainly involving Australia and Canada and supplemented by the United States, France, and Kazakhstan. Mexico, Argentina, and other countries gradually withdrew from trading wheat with China. Among the factors affecting China's wheat import trade, China's per capita GDP and total imports, geographical distance, current GDP of exported countries, and last year's wheat output have a significant impact. In addition, climate factors also had a significant impact on China's wheat imports.

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