기후변화에 따른 가지야마 공식 월별 보정계수 개선 및 평가

초록

The Kajiyama formula, which is an empirical formula based on the maximum flood data at Korean watersheds, has been widely used for the designof hydraulic structures and management of watersheds. However, this formula was developed based on meteorological data and flow measured duringearly 1900s so that it could not consider the recently changed rainfall pattern due to climate changes. Moreover, the formula does not provide themonthly coefficients for 5 months including July and August (flood season), which causes the uncertainty to accurately interpret runoff characteristicsat a watershed. Thus, the objective of this study is to enhance the monthly coefficients based on the recent meteorological data and flow data expandingthe range of rainfall classification. The simulated runoff using the enhanced monthly coefficients showed better performance compared to that usingthe original coefficients. In addition, we evaluated the applicability of the enhanced monthly coefficient for future runoff prediction. Based on the resultsof this study, we found that the Kajiyame formula with the enhanced coefficients could be applied for the future prediction. Hence, the Kajiyamaformula with enhanced monthly coefficient can be useful to support the policy and plan related to management of watersheds in Korea.

키워드