Effect of antecedent rainfall conditions and their variations on shallow landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds in South Korea

초록

The intensity-duration (I-D) threshold is considered an effective indicator for landslides triggered by short-term high-intensity rainfall and long-term low-intensity rainfall. However, previous studies have not considered the influence of antecedent rainfall. Herein, we analyzed hourly rainfall data for 613 shallow landslides that occurred from 1963 to 2018 in South Korea to obtain rainfall thresholds and investigated the effect of antecedent rainfall conditions on threshold variations. TheI-DandI(MAP)-D, which is normalized by dividingIby mean annual precipitation (MAP), thresholds were determined to beI = 10.40D(-0.31)andI(MAP) = 0.006D(-0.26) (4 <= D(h) <= 84), respectively, at the 2nd percentile level through quantile regression analysis. These thresholds were lower than other local thresholds (i.e., excluding global and regional thresholds), suggesting that the southern region of the Korean Peninsula was more susceptible to rainfall-induced landslides. Although the effective length of antecedent rainfall was not presented herein, theI-Dthreshold of landslide-triggering rainfall was confirmed to be low for the absolute and/or calibrated antecedent rainfalls greater than event cumulative rainfall at 5, 7, 10, and 20 days prior to the event.Such differences inIcan be greater at shorter durations; however, these differences gradually decrease asDincreases, suggesting that they lose their effect as soil water content increases. The results of the current study can improve the understanding of the effect of antecedent rainfall conditions on landslide occurrence and should be further tested with respect to the hydrologic response of hillslopes by considering regional climate and local site conditions.

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