한국과 일본에 대한 미국의 쌀 수출 분석

초록

After URAA, the global rice market has been liberalized significantly. Members of the WTO agreed to a process of tariffication, to bind those tariffs, and to subject them to reductions. Lowering tariffs and expanding tariff‐rate quotas (TRQs) will focus primarily on increasing Japanese and South Korean rice imports from the URAA agreements. These two markets are critical for expanding global trade in japonica rice. Recent tariffication by Japan has slowed the increase in minimum access imports and placed a high tariff on above-quota imports. In the meantime, U.S. rice exports to Japan and South Korea will likely increase due to their market expansion, especially japonica type of rice. However, there has not been many research considering U.S. rice exports to Japan and South Korea even though the U.S. might be a major exporter to Japan and South Korea. Therefore, this research attempts to analyze U.S. exports to Japanese and South Korean import markets using econometric technique and simulate some possible scenarios related to WTO negotiations. The results show that U.S. export to Japan would have increased if Japanese tariffs decreased by more than 6% annually. In the case of South Korea, compared to the actual imports, U.S. export would have increased significantly in the scenarios from 4% to 8% decrease in tariffs. Based upon the WTO negotiations, South Korea will have to increase their rice imports, and Japan will likely be required to reduce its import tariffs. The U.S. and major export countries will seek to increase their market shares in both countries. Moreover, it is expected to focus on State Trading Enterprises (STEs), transfer to commodity-specific in domestic support category, and expansion in rice market access lowering tariffs in the ongoing and future rice trade negotiations.

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