Water Supply Risk Assessment of Agricultural Reservoirs using Irrigation Vulnerability Model and Cluster Analysis

초록

Because reservoirs that supply irrigation water play an important role in water resource management, it is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of thisparticular water supply resource. The purpose of this study is to provide water supply risk maps of agricultural reservoirs in South Korea using irrigationvulnerability model and cluster analysis. To quantify water supply risk, irrigation vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of thewater supply on the agricultural reservoir system using a probability theory and reliability analysis. First, the irrigation vulnerability probabilities of 1,346reservoirs managed by Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC) were analyzed using meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations over the past30 years (1981-2010). Second, using the K-mean method of non-hierarchical cluster analysis and pre-simulation approach, cluster analysis was appliedto classify into three groups for characterizing irrigation vulnerability in reservoirs. The morphology index, watershed area, irrigated area, and ratiobetween watershed and irrigated area are selected as the clustering analysis parameters. It is suggested that the water supply risk map be utilized as a basisfor the establishment of risk management measures, and could provide effective information for a reasonable decision making on drought risk mitigation.

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