Effect of Climate Change on Annual Precipitation in Korea Using Data Screening Techniques and Climate Change Scenarios

초록

Precipitation is essential for understanding hydrological processes and identifying the characteristics that must be considered to protect human lives and property from natural disasters. Hydrological analyses assume that precipitation shows stationarity. However, because of the recent changes in climate, the stationarity of climate data has been widely debated, and a need has arisen to analyze its nonstationary nature. In this study, we reviewed a method to analyze the stationarity of annual precipitation data from 37 meteorological stations that have recorded data for more than 45 years. Six stations that showed abnormal precipitation during the previous year were selected to evaluate the normality of future precipitation. The results showed that a significant trend was present in four out of 37 stations with unstable precipitation in 22 stations and persistent precipitation in 4 stations. The stationarity analysis of future annual precipitation using climate change scenarios suggested that no trend would be present in 11 stations and that unstable precipitation would be present in six stations. Persistent precipitation was identified in four stations. A comparison between the historical and predicted precipitation data conducted with the climate change scenarios showed that an increasing number of stations presented nonstationarity. Therefore, both stationarity and nonstationarity should be considered when performing hydrological analyses using annual precipitation data in Korea. Accordingly, prior to conducting any such analyses, the effect of climate change on annual precipitation should also be considered.

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