Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Korean Pulp-Paper Industry Using the Kaya Identity; [한국 제지산업의 Kaya 항등식 기반 탄소 탈동조화 분석]

초록

This study analyzes the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Korea’s pulp and paper industry using the Kaya identity, Tapio’s decoupling elasticity, and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition. From 2012 to 2023, the Tapio elasticity was -0.380, indicating an overall decoupling trend. The annual results revealed repeated strong decoupling (2013, 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2023), weak decoupling in several years, and one case of negative decoupling in 2017. The LMDI results identified reductions in energy intensity as the dominant factor that offsets emission growth driven by increased output, while improvements in carbon intensity were limited and occasionally contributed to higher emissions. These findings highlight the importance of energy efficiency improvements at the process level, such as waste-heat recovery, boiler retrofitting, and operational control systems. Furthermore, greater utilization of biomass fuels and access to low-carbon electricity are essential to achieving sustainable emission reduction in the pulp and paper industry. A limitation of this study is that it focuses on direct emissions (Scope 1); therefore, future studies should incorporate indirect emissions (Scope 2) from purchased electricity to capture the full decarbonization pathway of the industry. © 2025, Korean Technical Assoc. of the Pulp and Paper Industry. All rights reserved.

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