Global climatic impact on the sea kraits living near the tectonic plate boundaries

초록

Rapid climate change threatens marine ecosystems, and understanding the distribution patterns and habitat requirements of marine organisms is crucial for their conservation. All eight species of sea kraits (genus Laticauda), amphibious marine reptiles, have distributions constrained within areas in the Indo-Pacific region, although their unique distribution patterns remain unclear. To define the distribution patterns and habitat requirements of sea kraits, 454 occurrence points across 8 species and 7 macro-environmental variables were analyzed. Additionally, ecological niche models were built to predict the potential distributions of sea kraits and the impact of climate change in the 2090s. Our findings indicate that sea krait habitats are primarily located near tectonic plate boundaries and centered around the equator, with interspecific differences mainly influenced by sea surface temperature. Ecological niche models predicted a considerable decrease in the habitable areas for sea kraits by the 2090s, primarily around the equatorial region with the highest species richness and diversity. However, the models also predicted minor expansion in Japan and Korea to the north and New Zealand to the south. Despite such predictions, cold subarctic Oyashio Current from the North Pacific and long-distance travel to potential refugia in New Zealand in the south may restrict their expansion. These findings indicate that the specific habitat requirements of sea kraits may limit their ability to cope with climate threats across their ranges, suggesting that climate change poses a significant threat to the entire genus with a unique ecology and restricted distribution range.

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