Characterizing Human-Caused Wildfire Based on the Fire Weather Index in South Korea

초록

This study examines the effects of meteorological fire danger and human activity on wildfire ignition patterns in South Korea using records from 2004 to 2023. A percentile-based Fire Weather Index (FWI) classification, derived from negative binomial regression, identified critical daily fire frequency thresholds at FWI 4.39 (mu >= 1 fire/day) and FWI 6.84 (mu >= 2 fires/day). Bivariate LISA analysis revealed a spatial mismatch between resident population density and wildfire frequency: High-High (HH) clusters were concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan fringe, while Low-High (LH) clusters appeared in mountainous provinces where forest visitor ignitions and agricultural burning are the primary causes. In HH clusters, cigarette-related ignitions and structure-to-forest transitions were comparatively more frequent. Wildfire events were concentrated in age class 4-5 coniferous and broadleaf stands, and mean ignition-to-building distances in metropolitan areas frequently fell below 150 m. These findings suggest that prevention strategies should shift from uniform resident-oriented approaches toward spatially differentiated management targeting transient populations in LH areas and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) exposure in HH areas.

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