내국인 해외관광수요의 구조적 변화

초록

This paper investigates the potential of structural instability in the demand function for Korea’s outbound tourism. For the analysis, the Chow test is applied to quarterly time series of the tourist expenditures and the number of tourists using the real U.S. dollar rate and real GDP as explanatory variables. The data are divided into two periods by IMF economic crisis, 1989: 1 - 1997: 3 and 1997: 4 - 2005: 4.The result shows that there exists a structural change in the demand. Finally, the study discusses that the regression models considering the structural change show relatively better performance measured by R2, MAPE and Theil’s U.

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