GIS 공간분석 기술을 이용한 국내 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 고위험지역 분류

초록

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is among the top infectious disease priorities in Korea and the leading cause of economic loss in relevant poultry industry. An understanding of the spatial epidemiology of HPAI outbreak is essential in assessing and managing the risk of the infection. Though previous studies have reported the majority of outbreaks occurred clustered in what are preferred to as densely populated poultry regions, especially in southwest coast of Korea, little is known about the spatial distribution of risk areas vulnerable to HPAI occurrence based on geographic information system (GIS). The main aim of the present study was to develop a GIS-based risk index model for defining potential high-risk areas of HPAI outbreaks and to explore spatial distribution in relative risk index for each 252 Si-Gun-Gu (administrative unit) in Korea. The risk index was derived incorporating seven GIS database associated with risk factors of HPAI in a standardized five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 for each database represent the lowest and the highest risk of HPAI respectively. Our model showed that Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnamdo, Jeollanam-do and Chungcheongbuk-do regions will have the highest relative risk from HPAI. Areas with risk index value over 4.0 were Naju, Jeongeup, Anseong, Cheonan, Kochang, Iksan, Kyeongju and Kimje, indicating that Korea is at risk of HPAI introduction. Management and control of HPAI becomes difficult once the virus are established in domestic poultry populations; therefore, early detection and development of nationwide monitoring system through targeted surveillance of high-risk spots are priorities for preventing the future outbreaks.

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