탄소중립 달성을 위한 기후변화영향평가 개선방안 - 대형 에너지 사업을 중심으로

초록

As international and domestic frameworks increasingly strengthen states' legal obligations to address climate change, climate change impact assessment has emerged as a pivotal mechanism for evaluating the greenhouse gas emissions of large-scale development projects and integrating carbon neutrality goals into decision-making. The 2025 International Court of Justice (ICJ) Advisory Opinion on climate obligations confirmed that states' duties to respond to climate change constitute legal obligations subject to review under a due diligence standard, and identified climate impact assessment as a core procedural requirement distinct from general environmental impact assessment. This article examines whether Korea's current climate change impact assessment system, established under Article 23 of the Carbon Neutrality Basic Act, functions as an effective tool for controlling the climate impacts of large-scale energy projects. Drawing on legal analysis of the governing regulations, comparative law review, and a case study of the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand Climate Change Impact Assessment, the article identifies four structural limitations of the existing framework. First, assessments are conducted only after core project parameters—energy source, capacity, and location—have been determined at the project authorization stage, negating their function as ex ante review. Second, greenhouse gas accounting is confined to direct, on-site emissions, excluding supply chain emissions and the lifetime cumulative output of assets with thirty-year operational lives. Third, the regulations lack concrete criteria for evaluating consistency with the 1.5°C pathway, a gap compounded by the absence of a nationally established carbon budget. Fourth, the alternative analysis requirement is limited to comparing mitigation measures within an already-decided project, with no obligation to consider no-project or energy-transition alternatives. These limitations are illustrated through analysis of the 11th Electricity Plan assessment. Comparative review of the EU EIA Directive, EFTA Court advisory opinion, UK Supreme Court Finch decision, South African Earthlife Africa judgment, and Canada's Impact Assessment Act reveals consistent international standards requiring assessment prior to project authorization, inclusion of downstream emissions, and substantive consistency review against national climate targets. On this basis, the article proposes five reform directions: shifting assessment timing to the pre-licensing stage; expanding greenhouse gas accounting to include downstream and supply chain emissions; introducing concrete 1.5°C pathway consistency criteria alongside a statutory national carbon budget; mandating no-project alternative analysis; and elevating core assessment standards from ministerial notice to statutory level. Strengthening climate change impact assessment should be treated as a foundational element of Korea's carbon neutrality implementation framework alongside the ongoing reform of the Carbon Neutrality Basic Act.

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