국제관광과 무역간의 인과성 검정

초록

This paper investigates whether there is a relationship between international tourism and trade flows using the data of Korea and three important travel and trading partners, Japan, China and the USA. Using cointegration and error-correction models the paper finds support for prior beliefs that there is a relationship between international tourism and trade. Findigs indicate a two-way Granger causality between international travel and trade. Thus, previous tourism forecasting studies using a single equation approach may lead to biased estimates since they fail to consider possible simultaneity bias or feedback effects between international tourism and trade. In addition, these results may further suggest redirecting appropriate policies between tourism and trade.

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