열병합발전소 열생산량 예측을 통한 효율적인 축열조 축·방열 운영 방안 연구

초록

This study predicts district-heating demand at the customer level and the heat-loss rate of a combined heat and power (CHP) plant, and then proposes an optimal daily thermal-storage capacity to enable efficient storage operation. The objective is to reduce total heat production while jointly optimizing electricity and heat output. We analyze operational data from a CHP plant that supplies a city in Gangwon-do, Korea, focusing on the winter months of January 2023 and January 2024. Customer-side consumption and network heat loss are quantified using district-heating metering data. For January 2024, we determine the optimal thermal-storage capacity and optimize charge/discharge schedules to minimize day-to-day state-of-charge variation. By stabilizing internal pressure fluctuations, the proposed strategy lowers distribution losses and improves overall heat-production efficiency. Simulation results indicate that the method reduces heat consumption at the CHP plant and lowers production costs.

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