Analyses of the Potential Capabilities and Factors Affecting Vietnamese Fruit Exports

초록

Trade data from 10 countries spanning 21 years was analyzed via revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index with gravity model adaptation (e.g., export equation by estimation methodology) to determine the export capabilities and the primary factors affecting Vietnamese fruit exportation. The data was obtained from the International Trade Center (ITC) database, Free Map Tools, and the United National Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The RCA index showed that Vietnam has a comparative advantage in exporting fruit (RCA > 1), specifically in coconut, Brazil nut, and cashew nut exports. The export equation result (least squares regression) indicated that factors could positively or negatively affect the quantity of exported fruits. The competitor’s export price, China’s participation, and the import country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita positively affected the quantity. The distance and the currency exchange rate between Vietnam and the importing country, the Vietnamese fruit export price, the agricultural area per capita, and the value of imported fruits to Vietnam negatively affected the quantity. Quantile regression analysis showed that Vietnamese fruit trading depends on the export scale. These results suggest an efficient strategy for developing the Vietnamese fruit industry, particularly in fruit exportation.

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