국제 유가 변동성이 국내 휘발유 가격 비대칭성에 미치는 영향

초록

Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of “Altteul” gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, “Altteul” gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While “Altteul” gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

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