Conflict, International Response, and Forced Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2007

초록

This study investigates the effect of conflicts and international humanitarian response on decisions of forcibly displaced people, including refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), about where to relocate in sub-Saharan countries between 1980 and 2007. Although light has been shed on the plight of displaced people in studies on forced migration and international relations, no clear-cut answer exists as to what condition some displaced people relocate themselves within their country of origin while others seek refuge abroad. I argue that displaced people respond to violent conflict by making decisions, within their constrained freedom of choice, about where they go based on the expected levels of threat and humanitarian assistance and protection. The results of fractional logit analyses show that humanitarian operations where the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is involved in a country of origin reduce the proportion of refugees fleeing from the country, while they are not statistically significant in terms of the proportion of refugees residing in a country of asylum. This mixed finding is closely related to the fact that sub-Saharan countries recently have securitized refugees such that these countries are reluctant to receive refugees, producing a lot more IDPs than refugees.

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